According to BSP’s 2021 Quarter 4 Pacific Economic and Market Insight, the 2022 National Budget and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate real GDP growth in 2021 at 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively. In 2022, the PNG Government forecasts 5.4% growth underpinned by large public infrastructure spending. There is potential for further upside from election-related spending, while the resurgence of COVID and low vaccination rates in the country pose significant downside risk.
